The Race for Governor: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The most current data suggest Republicans winning the majority of gubernatorial seats throughout the country. If projections are borne out, there will be potentially devastating ramifications for the rights and health of women, children and vulnerable populations felt well beyond 2012.
Today’s New York Times contains a front page story on the current state of gubernatorial races throughout the country. There are currently 26 Democratic Governors and 24 Republicans governors, with governorships in play in 37 states this election season. The balance of these seats is expected, according to current polling, to shift in favor of Republicans, with potentially dramatic ramifications for women’s rights, reproductive and sexual rights, and the future of both parties.
Right now, Republican candidates are leading in Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all states that now have that have Democratic governors, and, according to the Times, “The Republican Party is also increasing its investment in Democratic-leaning states like Illinois, Massachusetts and Oregon, seeing opportunities for pickups there as well.”
Democrats are in tough fights in Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin, hoping to block a Republican sweep of the Midwest. And they are intensifying efforts in California, Florida and Georgia, all tossup races in states that have Republican governors.
At stake are a number of issues. One is redistricting. The next group of Governors will preside over redrawing Congressional and legislative districts based on the 2010 census, giving them considerable influence over the political map for the next decade, notes the Times.
In at least 36 states, governors have a say in how Congressional districts will be redrawn. And governors in at least 39 states have a role in shaping state legislative maps.
Much of the focus has been on Republican efforts to win control of Congress, but a wave of Republican victories in the governor’s races could have just as significant, and potentially longer lasting, implications. And having Republican governors in charge in battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvanis will unquestionably make President Obama’s bid for reelection in 2012 more difficult.
And, notes the Times, “Republican governors would be a force in how Obama administration initiatives in health care, education, economic stimulus and other issues are installed on the state level, intensifying partisan policy battles.”
This is particularly true given who the candidates are. Nikki Haley, Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, for example, is one of the so-called mama grizzlies, and has been endorsed by Sarah Palin. But these women are deeply anti-choice and also deeply conservative by the most fundamentalist definitions.
As Newsweek magazine noted in a cover story, for example:
With few exceptions, the grizzlies have been disinterested in the issues and policies that their political opponents say are good for children—despite new numbers from the census showing that rising numbers of America’s children are poor. Most of these candidates have vowed to fight to repeal President Obama’s health-care plan, for instance, and [Michelle] Bachmann and Haley have taken special aim at CHIP, a federal program aimed at helping low-income kids get health insurance…
[A] review of their positions suggests that a grizzly’s first priority is to protect her cubs by keeping government the heck out of their lives. “Government,” in this sense, generally means broad intrusions, such as taxes, the U.S. Department of Education, and federal stimulus money, as well as smaller ones, such as proposals to increase Pell Grants (designed to make college more affordable, opposed by Bachmann). From a grizzly’s point of view, the government is everywhere, and it needs to back off….
Grizzlies oppose abortion on the grounds that “unborn children” (their language) are the most vulnerable of all.
And if they take Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and Attorney General Bob Cuccinelli as models, governors in states with right-wing Attorneys General will almost unquestionably use their use their powers for a social agenda that is apt to undermine progress in several areas, including gay rights, scientific integrity and access to basic reproductive and sexual health care, among other things.
Moreover, as Gov. Jack Markell of Delaware, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, told the New York Times, “Governor’s races are important every cycle, but this year they are arguably more important to the future of Congress than the Congressional races themselves.”
Personal fortunes also factor heavily in this equation, notes the Times:
The contests have attracted several business executives, many of whom are investing tens of millions of dollars from their own fortunes into their campaigns, which means voters are seeing dozens of television ads each day from Republicans like Meg Whitman in California and Rick Scott in Florida.
In the end, with the fallout from a weak economy and an Administration that has allowed the far right to define the terms of debate on everything from health care reform to the economy to women’s fundamental rights, the shift in the balance of power in these gubernatorial races may well be felt much deeper and longer than the next election cycle.